French Presidential, First Round- Final Thoughts & Predictions

Le jour de gloire est arrivé!

Today, the French people go to the polls for the first round of voting to elect the 25th President of the fifth republic. The man or woman to replace the hapless François Hollande will not be chosen today however, barring some miracle the like of which France has not seen since the days of St. Bernadette.

I by and large stick by my projections from a few months ago; Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will make it through to the second round. The only change since then is the remarkable rise in the polls of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. This has largely been at the expense of Benoît Hamon, however there seems to be a socialist ‘floor’ of around 8% that is stopping Mélenchon from inching into one of the top two places. It will be tight also with Fillon, however again neither of them have consistently breached the 20% mark that Macron and Le Pen have been polling above for some time now.

As such, my final projections for the first round of voting are as follows:

  1. Emmanuel Macron:        8,592,827     24.3%
  2. Marine Le Pen:                7,937,745      22.5%
  3. François Fillon:                6,915,660     19.6%
  4. Jean-Luc Mélenchon:      6,757,363     19.1%
  5. Benoît Hamon:                 2,595,175        7.3%
  6. Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: 1,518,160        4.3%
  7. Phillippe Potou:                   449,839        1.3%
  8. Jean Lassalle:                       189,571        0.5%
  9.  François Asselineau:         168,507         0.5%
  10. Nathalie Arthaud:                105,417        0.3%
  11. Jacques Cheminade:               92,883        0.3%

Just looking at the figures, it is this blog’s personal hope that enough of those 2 and a half million still set to vote for Hamon switch to Mélenchon. At present that would require 2.3 of those 2.5; an unrealistic figure. But who knows? He may be able to mop up enough support from elsewhere to do it. As it stands though, anything other than Macron-Le Pen would be a surprise still.

My region-by-region breakdown is as follows:


 First thing to note is not to be fooled by the size of French Guyana. It is very sparsely populated and probably will only give Fillon a boost of about 7,000; negligible in the overall context. As I’ve said before I don’t like these new administrative regions they came up with, not least because they disallow more nuanced viewings; for example the fact that Normandy is deeply split between the Le-Pen favouring Upper and Macron leaning Lower regions. Nonetheless, it looks pretty safe as regards the second round, with Macron on course for a 55-45, or maybe even 60-40 victory.
In any case, we’ll reflect again after the first round of voting finishes tonight. Whatever happens, democracy demands that we vote responsibly, as we all share the burden of our collective choices. France’s next president will help determine the future of the European Union, and even the world beyond it. We are all affected, and we should all be watching closely.

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